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 Official documents: Overview of the project & results (IN SPANISH)

General information on Anemos Untitled Document

 

ANEMOS: Estudio sobre prediccion eolica en la Union Europea (2007)

Report with an overview of the project and its results prepared by partner IDAE.

IN SPANISH.

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Posted by webmaster on Monday, July 09 @ 22:44:43 CEST (2239 reads)
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 Official documents: ANEMOS Workshop at EWEC 2006

General information on Anemos Untitled Document

Last update: 12.04.2006

Short-term forecasting - ANEMOS project
Workshops Track / Session Code: BW4
Tuesday, 28 February 2006, 16:00 - 18:00

Chair(s):
Thierry Langlois d'Estaintot, DG RTD, European Commission, Belgium
Philip O'Donnell, ESB National Grid, Ireland

download papers & presentations

paper present.
BW4.1 Next Generation Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power - Overview of the Anemos Project. George KARINIOTAKIS, Ecole des Mines de Paris, France.
BW4.2 Short-term Forecasting Using Advanced Physical Modelling Gregor GIEBEL, RISOE, Denmark.
BW4.3 Advanced Statistical Modelling and Uncertainty Assessment for Wind Power Forecasting Torben Skov NIELSEN,Technical University of Denmark, Denmark.
BW4.4 Short-term Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farms Production Jens TAMBKE,Univ. Oldenburg, Germany.
BW4.5 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Ignacio MARTI,CENER, Spain.
BW4.6 The ANEMOS Wind Power Forecasting Platform. Igor WALDL, OVERSPEED, Germany.

 

 


Posted by webmaster on Wednesday, March 15 @ 15:52:33 CET (6715 reads)
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 Official documents: Stand of the Anemos Project at the CER 2005 Exhibition

General information on Anemos Untitled Document
Communicating European Research 2005
International Conference
Brussels Exhibition Center (Heysel)
14-15 November 2005

Views of the Anemos Stand and the Exhibition Hall.

On 14-15 November, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research hosted the second “Communicating European Research” Conference. Based on the very positive experiences from the 2004 edition, the event focused on the manifold aspects of science communication and provided an excellent forum and meeting place for scientists, communication professionals and journalists. The conference took stock of the way towards the Seventh Framework Programme.

The ANEMOS project participated with a stand at the CER 2005 Exhibition.

 



Posted by webmaster on Wednesday, March 15 @ 15:14:26 CET (1423 reads)
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 Official documents: WP-5 description

General information on Anemos Work- Package 1: "DEFINITION OF PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS

 

Work-Package 5:

"Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Farms".

   

WP Leader:

Univ. OLDENBURG (Detlev Heinemann).

   

Partners Involved:

ARIA, ARMINES, CCLRC/RAL, CENER, CIEMAT, DTU, OVERSPEED, RISOE

Objectives:

This Work-Package aims to develop forecasting models for offshore wind farms. In a given area of interest, offshore wind parks are currently located in the 5 to 10 km zones from coast. Considering the surface covered by wind farms, the resolution of the wind grid needed is about 1 km. The data available for offshore applications will be measurements at the level of wind farm as well as Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) provided by a meteorological system. The downscaling of NWPs to the level of wind farm involves several difficulties; for example due to the variable roughness of sea surface that depends on wind speed. This Work-Package focuses on the specificities of the meteorological conditions offshore. The roughness is very low, and the thermal state of the atmosphere, the stability, is for long periods very different from the near neutral case expected onshore. Additionally, the low roughness increases the influence of stability on the wind speed profile dramatically. It is of interest to investigate the parameters that influence the wind speed offshore most. In a first step purely NWPs are evaluated against measurements.

Of special interest is the evaluation of meteorological forecasts by estimation of wind speed on a kilometric grid from Satellite Radar data. Radar images from open waters contain information about wind speed and wind direction. In contrast to mast measurements, the absolute accuracy is quite poor (rmse ~2 m/s), but spatial information for a large region can be delivered. This spatial information about wind speed and direction can be used e.g. to validate shadowing within the windfarm. Patterns of wind field around the wind farm can be defined from Satellite images. It will be examined how this high-resolution information can be integrated in either physical or statistical prediction models.

The ultimate objective is to develop statistical (i.e. artificial intelligence based ones) and physical models able to perform accurately for the offshore case. The physical models should be able to describe the vertical wind profile for vertical refinement of the wind speed. Emphasis is given in modelling spatio-temporal characteristics in large offshore wind farms. Offshore installed capacity will be very concentrated. Therefore large power fluctuations will occur much more often then onshore.

 

Description of Work:

Task 5.1: Impact of high-resolution meteorological forecasts.

Task 5.2: Contribution of satellite-radar information.

Task 5.3: Development of physical & statistical models

Task 5.4: Modelling spatio-temporal characteristics in large offshore wind farms

Project flow-chart

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Posted by webmaster on Saturday, October 09 @ 03:06:49 CEST (2295 reads)
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 Official documents: WP-4 description

General information on Anemos Work- Package 1: "DEFINITION OF PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS

 

Work-Package 4:

"Prediction using advanced Physical Modelling".

   

WP Leader:

RISOE (Gregor Giebel).

   

Partners Involved:

ARIA, ARMINES, CENER, CIEMAT, DTU, IASA

Objectives:

Short-term prediction is used operationally in a number of countries. The number one complaint by the utilities that use the predictions operationally is that the predictions are not of the same quality as they are used to from load predictions. The short-term prediction models themselves (defined as the "translator" of the NWP model results into wind power forecasts) are quite accurate if fed with measured data. The models also reach a significantly better result than pure meteorological forecasts. However, the main error source is the NWP model. WP-4 tries to especially help out in cases of bad predictions, where the performance of the NWP model for a particular site is not good enough.

The reasons for this less-than-adequate performance can be insufficient resolution of the local flows, not good enough parameterisation of physical phenomena on a scale below the grid resolution, a non-representative data source feeding the model in the vicinity of the site, and a number of other (often large-scale) effects. The main push in this WP is to use meso-scale and CFD models to capture the sub-scale effects not resolved by the main NWP model. The main idea here is that better forecasts of the worst forecasted sites leads to a higher quality forecast for the areas, thus increasing the usability of wind power in a large-scale grid and reducing the "ecological rucksack" of wind power.

Description of Work:

The aim of this work package is to improve existing physical models or to elaborate more advanced ones for wind resource prediction especially in complex terrain. The developed models will consider as input high-resolution meteorological information. Due to the shortening of the modelled area, more detailed models for the terrain will be developed. The Work Package will examine the benefits from downscaling wind power using advanced CFD modelling.On the other hand, multi-dimensional MOS correction matrix will be generated based on a number of simulations with KAMM. This will increase the speed of a physical model and will account for Mesoscale effects.Finally, the long-term (up to 7 days ahead) wind resource predictability will be assessed.

Task 4.1: Prediction in complex terrain. CFD modelling.

Task 4.2: Models based on high-resolution meteorological information.

Task 4.3: Advanced MOS based on high-resolution meteo.

Task 4.4: Long-term wind resource predictability (up to 7 days).

Project flow-chart

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Posted by webmaster on Saturday, October 09 @ 01:36:50 CEST (2380 reads)
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 Official documents: Information Leaflet on the Project

General information on Anemos
Flyer describing the background, the objectives, the structure and the expected results of the project.
Download flyerdownload pdf

Posted by webmaster on Saturday, December 13 @ 00:00:55 CET (1752 reads)
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 Official documents: Publications related to the ANEMOS Project

Literature on wind prediction Untitled Document

Last update: 2007.07.18 (82 publications)

2002:

[1] Lange M., et al, 'ANEMOS - Vergleich und Verbesserung existierender europäischer Windleistungvorhersagemodelle - ANEMOS - Comparison and Improvement of Existing European Wind Power Prediction Models', Proceedings of the 2002 DEWEK Conference, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, October 23-24, 2002.

2003:

[2] Kariniotakis G., et al, "ANEMOS: Development of a next generation wind power forecasting system for the large-scale integration of onshore & offshore wind farms". Proceedings of the EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, 06-11 April 2003, Nice, France, Vol. 5, 13588.
[3] Waldl, H-P., Lange, B., Focken, U., "Special Issues Concerning Wind Power Prediction for Offshore Wind Farms", Proceedings of the European Seminar: 'Offshore Wind Energy in Mediterranean and other European Seas' OWEMES, Naples, Italy, April 12-13, 2003. (Download presentation download pdf)
[4] Kariniotakis G., et al, "ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003.download pdf
[5] Giebel, G., Landberg, L., Kariniotakis, G., Brownsword, R., "State-of-the-Art on Methods and Software Tools for Short-Term Prediction of Wind Energy Production", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. download pdf
[6] Lange, M., Heinemann, D., "Relating the uncertainty of short-term wind speed predictions to meteorological situations with methods from synoptic climatology", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. download pdf
[7] Pinson, P., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., "Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic Fuzzy-Neural Networks Based Upscaling Approach.", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. download pdf
[8] Barquero, G. C., "Development of Efficient Wind Power Prediction Systems: Anemos Project. Contribution of the IDAE", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003.
[9] Pinson, P., Kariniotakis, G., "On-line Assessment of Prediction Risk for Wind Power Production Forecasts", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003.
[10] Navarro, J., et al, "Using the MM5 model for wind prediction in a complex terrain site." CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003.download pdf
[11] Tambke, J., Focken, U., Lange, L., Heinemann, D., "Previento meets Horns Rev - Short Term Wind Power Prediction- adaption to offshore sites", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. download pdf
[12] Marti, I., et al, "LocalPred and RegioPred. Advanced tools for wind energy prediction in complex terrain", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. download pdf
[13] Giebel, G., Kariniotakis, G., Brownsword, R., "The State-of-the-Art in Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power - From a Danish Perspective", CD-Rom Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind farms, Billund, Denmark, October 20-21, 2003. download pdf
[14] Focken, U., Lange, L., Tambke, J., Waldl, H-P, "Predicting Offshore Windpower", CD-Rom Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind farms, Billund, Denmark, October 20-21, 2003.(Download presentation download pdf)

2004:

[15] Kariniotakis, G., & the Anemos Team, "Towards Next Generation Sort-term Forecasting of Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004. Paper download pdf, Poster download pdf.
[16] Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Pinson, P., "A Protocol for Standardising the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004. download pdf
[17] Pinson, P., Kariniotakis, "On-line Adaptation of Confidence Intervals based onWeather Stability for Wind Power Forecasting", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004.
[18] Pinson, P., Ranchin, T., Kariniotakis, G., "Short-term Wind Power Prediction for Offshore Wind Farms - Evaluation of Fuzzy-Neural Network Based Models", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004.
[19] Cabezon, D., Marti, I., San Isidro, M.J., Perez., I., "Comparison of Methods for Power Curve Modelling", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004. download pdf
[20] Pinson, P., Kariniotakis, G., "Uncertainty and Prediction Risk Assessment of Short-term Wind Power Forecasts", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Conference: The Science of making Torque from Wind, Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004.
[21] Marti, I., San Isidro, M.J., Cabezón, D., Loureiro, Y., Villanueva, J., Cantero, E., Pérez, I., "Wind Power Prediction in Complex Terrain: From the Synoptic Scale to the Local Scale", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Conference: The Science of making Torque from Wind, Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004. download pdf
[22] Barthelmie, R., Frandsen, S., Pryor, S. and Larsen, S., "Analytical and empirical modelling of large wind farm clusters", The science of making torque from wind - EWEA special topic conference, Delft, April 2004, 292-303.
[23] Lange, M., Tambke, J., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., Bye, J.A.T., "Forecasting Offshore Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the EWEA Special Topic Conference: "The Science of making Torque from Wind", Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004.
[24] Lange, M., "On the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions", CD-Rom Proceedings of the EWEA Special Topic Conference: "The Science of making Torque from Wind", Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004.
[25] Pinson, P., Kariniotakis, G., "On-line Assessment of Prediction Risk for Wind Power Production Forecasts", Wind Energy Journal, vol. 7, pp. 119-132, May-June 2004.
[26] Tambke, J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, M., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind Profiles over the North Sea - Measurements compared to an Air-Sea-Interaction Model", CD-Rom Proceedings of the German Wind Energy Conference DEWEK'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 Oct. 2004.
[27] Kariniotakis G., Pinson, P., "Uncertainty of Short-term Wind Power Forecasts - A Methodology for On-line Assessment", CD-Rom proceedings of 8th International Conference on Probability Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2004, Ames, Iowa, USA, Sept. 12-16, 2004.
[28] Tambke, J., Lange, M., Focken, U., "Wind Power Forecasts for the North and Baltic Sea", CD-rom Proceedings of the German Wind Energy Conference DEWEK'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 Oct. 2004.
[29] Kariniotakis, G., et al, "The ANEMOS Project: Next Generation Forecasting of Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the 2004 German Wind energy Conference DEWEC'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 October 2004.
[30] Kariniotakis, G., Pinson, P., Siebert, N., Giebel, G., Bartelmie, R., " The State of the Art in Short-term Prediction of Wind Power - From an Offshore Perspective", Symposium ADEME, IFREMER, "Renewable energies at sea", Brest, France, October 20-21, 2004.download pdf
[31] Barthelmie, R.J., Giebel, G., Jorgensen, B.H and Badger, J. "Comparison of corrections to site wind speeds in the offshore environment: value for short-term forecasting", CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004.download pdf
[32] Tambke, J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, M., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., "Modelling Offshore Wind Profiles using Inertially Coupled Wave Boundary Layers", CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004.download pdf
[33] Kariniotakis, G., I. Marti, et al, "What Performance Can Be Expected by Short-term Wind Power Prediction Models Depending on Site Characteristics?", CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004.download pdf
[34] Pinson, P., Chevallier, C., Kariniotakis, G., "Optimizing Benefits from Wind Power Participation in Electricity Markets using Wind Power Forecasting Embedded with Uncertainty Management Tools", paper accepted for publication at the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004.download pdf
[35] Kariniotakis, G., "Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore wind farms", In: proceedings of the 2nd IEA Joint Action Symposium on Wind Forecasting Techniques, Lyngby, Denmark, June 2004.

2005:

[36] Tambke, J., Lange, M., Focken, U., "Forecasting Offshore Wind Speeds above the North Sea", Wind Energy Journal, vol. 8, pp. 3-16, Jan -Mar. 2005.
[37] Tambke, J., Bremen, L.v., Poppinga, C., Wolff, J.-O., Bye, J.A.T., "Forecasting Wind Power above North and Baltic Sea using Combined and Refined Numerical Weather Predictions.", Proceedings of the Fifth International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Glasgow, 2005.
[38] Tambke, J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, B., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind Velocity Profiles up to 100m above the North Sea - Observations compared to a Model of Wave-Coupled Ekman Layers", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.7, 06884, 2005, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-06884.
[39] Tambke, J., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bremen, L.v., Lange, B., "Wind Speed Forecasts for the North and Baltic Sea - Verification against 10m to 100m Observations", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.7, 10222, 2005, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-10222.
[40] Tambke, J., Poppinga, C., Claveri, L., Bremen, L.v., Graewe, U., "Quality of two different Wind Speed Forecasts for the North and Baltic Sea", Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society, Abstract-No. EMS05-A-00410, EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005.
[41] Tambke, J. T., Bye, J. A., Claveri, L., Bremen, L. v., Lange, B., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind Speeds and Momentum Fluxes in the Marine Boundary Layer of the North Sea - Predictions and 1 Year Measurements up to 100m Height", Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society,Abstract-No. EMS05-A-00254, EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005
[42] Bremen, L. v., Tambke, J., Poppinga, C., Graewe, U., Heinemann, D., "On the Decision to take forecasted or analysed Wind Speeds for the Development of statistical Wind Power Prediction Algorithms", Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society, Abstract-No. EMS05-A-00402, EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005.
[43] Tambke, J., Bye, J.A.T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Claveri, L., Bremen, L.v., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind Speed Profiles above the North Sea", EUROMECH Colloquium 464b Wind Energy, Oldenburg, 2005.
[44] Barthelmie, R., Giebel, G., Badger, J., "Short-term forecasting of wind speeds in the offshore environment", CD-Rom Proceedings of Copenhagen Offshore Wind 2005 Conference, Copenhagen Denmark, 26-28 October 2005. download pdf
[45] Tambke, J., Poppinga, C., Bremen, L.v., Claveri, L., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bye, J.A.T., Wolff, J.-O., "Forecasting 25GW Wind Power above North and Baltic Sea", Proceedings of the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Conference COW, Copenhagen, 2005
[46] Tambke, J., Claveri, L., Bye, J.A.T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Bremen, L.v., Wolff, J.-O., "Marine Meteorology for Multi-Mega-Watt Turbines". Proceedings of the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Conference COW, Copenhagen, 2005
[47] Louka, P., Galanis G., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., Katsafados, P., Kallos, G. Pytharoulis, I., "Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering", CD-Rom Proceedings of the CMMSE 2005, ISBN number 84-609-4844-7
[48] Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Pinson, P., "Standardising the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models", Wind Engineering, vol 29, no. 6, pp. 475-489, December, 2005.

2006:

[49] Sánchez, I., "Recursive Estimation of Dynamic Models Using Cook's Distance", With Application to Wind Energy Forecast", Technometrics, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 61-73, 2006.
[50] Sánchez, I., "Short-term prediction of wind energy production", International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 22, Issue 1, pp. 43-56, Jan.-Mar. 2006.download pdf
[51] Tambke, J., Poppinga, C., Bremen, L. v., Claveri, L., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bye, J.A.T., Wolff J.-O., "Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25GW Offshore Wind Power in Germany", (peer reviewed) Proceedings of the Scientific Track of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC, Athens, 2006.
[52] Tambke, J., Claveri, L., Bye, J. A. T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Bremen, L.v., Durante, F., Wolff, J.-O., "Offshore Meteorology for Multi-Mega-Watt Turbines", (peer reviewed) Proceedings of the Scientific Track of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC, Athens, 2006
[53] Kariniotakis, G., et al, "Next generation forecasting tools for the optimal management of wind generation", Peer reviewed, 2006 PMAPS Conference IEEE, 'Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems', Stockholm, Sweden, June 2006.
[54] Pinson, P., Juban, J., and Kariniotakis, G.N., "On the Quality and Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Generation", Peer reviewed, 2006 PMAPS Conference IEEE, 'Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems', Stockholm, Sweden, June 2006.
[55] Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., "Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[56] Kariniotakis, G., et al., "Next Generation Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power - Overview of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[57] Nielsen, T.S., et al, "Advanced Statistical Modelling and Uncertainty Assessment for Wind Power Forecasting", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[58] Giebel, G., et al "Short-term Forecasting Using Advanced Physical Modelling - The Results of the Anemos Project. Results from mesoscale, microscale and CFD modelling", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[59] Tambke, J., et al, "Short-term Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farms Production - Developments of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[60] Marti, I., et al, "Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models - The Results of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[61] Waldl, I., et al, "The ANEMOS Wind Power Forecasting Platform", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[62] Pinson, P., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Madsen, H., Kariniotakis. G., "Properties of interval and quantile forecasts of wind generation and their evaluation", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Scientific Track, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[63] Usaola, J., Angarita, J., "Benefits of short term wind power prediction programs for the integration of wind energy in electricity markets", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006.
[64] von Bremen, L., N. Saleck, J. Tambke, U. Graewe, D. Heinemann, "Integration of NWP Uncertainties in the Development of statistical Wind Power Forecasting Algorithms, In CD-Rom Procd. of European Wind Energy Conference EWEC'06, Athens, 2006.
[65] von Bremen, L., N. Saleck and J. Tambke, "How to avoid Biases in Offshore Wind Power Forecasting". In Procd. of OWEMES (Offshore Wind And Other Marine Renewable Energies In Mediterranean And European Seas) Conference, Civitavecchia, Italy, April 2006.
[66] von Bremen, L., "Optimal linkage of NWP Models with Neural Networks for Offshore Wind Power Predictions", CD-rom Procd. of the Sixth International workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore wind Farms, Delft, Netherlands, 26-28 October 2006.
[67] Barthelmie, R., Folkerts, L., Larsen, G., Pryor, S.C., Frandsen, S.T. and Schepers, G. "Comparison of wake model simulations with offshore wind turbine wake profiles measured by sodar", Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 23(7), 888-901, 2006.
[68] Sideratos, G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "Application of Radial Basis Function Networks for Wind Power Forecasting", In Procd. of Artificial Neural Networks- ICANN, 16th International Conference, Athens, Greece, Part II, September 10-14, 2006, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4132 Springer 2006, pp. 726-735.
[69] Waldl, H-P. Kariniotakis, G. for the ANEMOS Team. "Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power - Results of the ANEMOS Project", DEWEK 2006, CD-Rom Procd of 8th German Wind Energy Conference, Bremen, Germany, 22-23 November 2006.
[70] Kariniotakis G., "State of the art in wind power forecasting", 2nd International Conference on Integration of Renewable Energies and Distributed Energy Resources, Napa, California/USA, 4-8 December 2006.
[71] Barthelmie, R. J., Pryor, S.C., "Challenges in predicting power output from offshore wind farms", Journal of Energy Engineering, Vol. 132, No. 3, pp. 91-103, December 2006.
[72] G. Galanis, P. Louka, P. Katsafados, G. Kallos and I. Pytharoulis, "Applications of Kalman filters based on non-linear functions to numerical weather predictions", Annales Geophysicae, 24, 2451-2460, 2006.

2007:


[73] Sideratos, G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "An Advanced Statistical Method for Wind Power Forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Volume: 22, Issue: 1, pp. 258-265, Feb. 2007.
[74] Guénard, V., Kariniotakis, G., Martí, I., "ANEMOS Advanced Wind Power Forecasting. Operational Challenges and On-line Performance". In CD-Rom Procd. of EWEC'07, European Wind Energy Conference 2007, Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007.
[75] Giebel, G., Kariniotakis, G., "Best Practice in Short-Term Forecasting. A Users Guide", In CD-Rom Procd. of EWEC'07, European Wind Energy Conference 2007, Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007.
[76] Pinson, P., Chevallier, C., Kariniotakis, G.N., "Optimal Strategies for Trading Wind Energy in Electricity Markets using Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power", IEEE Transactions of Energy Conversion, Paper no. TPWRS-00709-2006, In press, 2007.
[77] Angarita, J., Usaola, J, "Combining hydro-generation and wind energy: Biddings and operation on electricity spot markets." Available at http://www.sciencedirect.com. Electric Power Systems Research, Volume 77, Issues 5-6, April 2007, Pages 393-400.
[78] Pinson, P., Nielsen, H.Aa., Møller, J.K., Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G.N. "Non-parametric Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power: Required Properties and Evaluation", Wind Energy, in press, 2007.
[79] Pinson, P., Nielsen, H.Aa, Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G.N., "Skill Forecasting from Different Wind Power Ensemble Prediction Methods", Peer reviewed, In CD-Rom Proceedings of the 2nd Conference on: 'The Science of Making Torque from Wind', Lyngby, Denmark, 2007 (to appear).
[80] Sideratos, G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "Using Radial Basis Neural Networks to Estimate Wind Power Production", IEEE Power Engineering Society, 2007 General Meeting, Orlando, Florida, January 8-10, 2007.
[81] Louka, P., Galanis, G., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., Katsafados, P., Kallos, G., Pytharoulis, I., "Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering", submitted for publication in Journal of Wind Engineering & Industrial Aerodynamics.
[82] Sideratos, G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "An advanced radial base structure for wind power forecasting", to appear in the International Journal of Power and Energy Systems.



 

 


Posted by webmaster on Thursday, October 02 @ 23:49:57 CEST (8428 reads)
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 Official documents: WP-3 description

General information on Anemos

Work-Package 3:

"Development of Statistical Models ".

   

WP Leader:

DTU-IMM (Henrik Madsen).

   

Partners Involved:

ARMINES, CCLRC/RAL, CENER, IASA, ICCS/NTUA, UC3M, University of Oldenburg.

Objectives:

The objective of this Work Package is to develop accurate models for wind resource forecasting based on advanced statistical and mainly on artificial intelligence methods (i.e. fuzzy logic, neural networks). These techniques permit to combine various types of explanatory inputs like wind direction, wind speed from neighbour sites, numerical weather predictions etc. Statistical techniques are very promising when high-resolution meteorological information is used as input to predict wind production up to 48-72 hours ahead.

Emphasis will be given to the development of statistical power curve models to estimate the relationship between wind power and local forecasts for meteorological variables such as wind speed and direction. Experience so far shows that one of the main error sources in wind power prediction lies in insufficient power curves. The use of certified power curves does not guarantee that the relation between wind speed and power output is accurately described. Models based on artificial intelligence will be developed for statistical downscaling. This consists in using a non-physical model for interpolating metrological forecasts from the nodes around wind farm to the level of wind farm and height of wind turbines. Statistical modelling can be an alternative technique to explicit terrain and roughness modelling.

Tasks will be dedicated on the development of approaches for regional or national forecasting of wind power (upscaling). Robust approaches for the on-line tuning of prediction models will be developped and evaluated. Such methods will permit adaptive models to avoid producing outliers in case of erroneous data input or extreme wind conditions.

Description of Work:

Task 3.1: Development of advanced statistical prediction models.

Task 3.2: Power curve modelling.

Task 3.3: Statistical downscaling.

Task 3.4: Upscaling.

Task 3.5: Automated processes for online tuning.

Task 3.6: Very short-term prediction for control purposes.

Project flow-chart

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Posted by webmaster on Tuesday, September 23 @ 21:12:17 CEST (2757 reads)
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 Official documents: WP-2 description

General information on Anemos

Work-Package 2:

"Off-line Evaluation of Prediction Techniques".

   

WP Leader:

CENER (Ignacio Marti).

   

Partners Involved:

ARMINES, ARIA, UC3M, DTU, MeteoFrance, CCLRC/RAL, RISOE, IASA, Univ-Oldenburg, CIEMAT.

Objectives:

The aim of this work package is double fold. Initially, existing models developed by the partners called hereafter as “base-line” models will be set-up for a set of case-studies defined in WP-1. Then, using sets of data, prediction results will be produced covering sufficiently long periods. The development of ANEMOS shell and database in WP-6 will provide the possibility to host the data and interface with base-line models so that these prediction results can be easily compared to models developed in the project, but also, in order to examine the performance of combined models. In a second stage, the off-line evaluation of the models developed in the project will follow. The results from base-line models will permit benchmarking and extensive evaluation of the benefits from the developments in the project. Appropriate case-studies will be defined in WP-1 to cover a wide variety of environments, flat and complex terrain, on and offshore wind farms; also different forecasting horizons, from minutes to days; and different spatial scales, from the wind farm to the region.

This work package will undertake the challenging task to compare output of meteorological models for a number of selected sites. The conclusions are expected to be very critical for selecting the appropriate NWP systems for wind forecasting applications using cost/benefit analysis.

Finally, appropriate criteria will be defined for the evaluation of the methods with emphasis to their performance in extreme weather conditions, as well as their robustness in on-line operation conditions. The evaluation of the performance of the applied techniques will be done in off-line mode, using the historical database created in WP1. The validation of the models in on-line operation will continue in WP6 after the installation of ANEMOS at the selected sites.

The results of this work package will be crucial for the development of the project. The error estimation methodology will be used throughout the life of the project in order to assess the performance of the different models. The test cases will provide results, which will be the guidelines to develop the prediction models.

Description of Work:

Task 2.1: Off-line evaluation of base-line models.

Task 2.2: Combination of the existing models.

Task 2.3: Evaluation of models developed in the project.

Task 2.4: Evaluation of purely meteorological forecasts.

Task 2.5: Development of appropriate error measures.

Project flow-chart

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Posted by webmaster on Monday, September 22 @ 22:34:17 CEST (2518 reads)
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 Official documents: Anemos Project Flow Chart

General information on Anemos

The following Figure shows the role of the Work Packages in the Project. Light green indicates initiated WPs.



Back to Tasks Overview



Posted by webmaster on Thursday, September 18 @ 02:40:07 CEST (4941 reads)
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     Calendar
Untitled Document


OWEMES 20-22/4/06


EES-UETP
Course on Wind Prediction - 19-21/6/06


Global WindPower
- 18-21/9/06

Other Events


     Selected Links
Untitled Document

EESD
5th FP - Energy, Environment & Sustainable Development

article
Wind Energy Projects under 5th FP


EWEA
EWEA

EUREC Agency





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