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| Official documents: Overview of the project & results (IN SPANISH) |
Untitled Document
ANEMOS:
Estudio sobre prediccion eolica en la Union Europea (2007)
Report
with an overview of the project and its results prepared by partner IDAE.
IN
SPANISH.
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the document
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Posted by webmaster on Monday, July 09 @ 22:44:43 CEST (2239 reads)
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| Official documents: ANEMOS Workshop at EWEC 2006 |
Untitled Document
Last
update: 12.04.2006
Short-term
forecasting - ANEMOS project
Workshops Track / Session Code: BW4
Tuesday, 28 February 2006, 16:00 - 18:00
Chair(s):
Thierry Langlois d'Estaintot, DG RTD, European Commission, Belgium
Philip O'Donnell, ESB National Grid, Ireland
download
papers & presentations
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paper |
present. |
BW4.1 |
Next
Generation Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power - Overview of the Anemos
Project. |
George
KARINIOTAKIS, Ecole des Mines de Paris, France. |
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BW4.2 |
Short-term
Forecasting Using Advanced Physical Modelling |
Gregor
GIEBEL, RISOE, Denmark. |
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BW4.3
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Advanced
Statistical Modelling and Uncertainty Assessment for Wind Power Forecasting |
Torben
Skov NIELSEN,Technical University of Denmark, Denmark. |
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BW4.4
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Short-term
Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farms Production |
Jens
TAMBKE,Univ. Oldenburg, Germany. |
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BW4.5 |
Evaluation
of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models |
Ignacio
MARTI,CENER, Spain. |
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BW4.6 |
The
ANEMOS Wind Power Forecasting Platform. |
Igor
WALDL, OVERSPEED, Germany. |
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Posted by webmaster on Wednesday, March 15 @ 15:52:33 CET (6715 reads)
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| Official documents: Stand of the Anemos Project at the CER 2005 Exhibition |
Untitled Document
Communicating
European Research 2005
International Conference
Brussels Exhibition Center (Heysel)
14-15 November 2005
Views
of the Anemos Stand and the Exhibition Hall.
On
14-15 November, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research
hosted the second “Communicating European Research” Conference. Based
on the very positive experiences from the 2004 edition, the event focused on
the manifold aspects of science communication and provided an excellent forum
and meeting place for scientists, communication professionals and journalists.
The conference took stock of the way towards the Seventh Framework Programme.
The
ANEMOS project participated with a stand at the CER 2005 Exhibition.
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Posted by webmaster on Wednesday, March 15 @ 15:14:26 CET (1423 reads)
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| Official documents: WP-5 description |
Work- Package 1: "DEFINITION OF PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS
Work-Package 5:
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"Prediction Models for
Offshore Wind Farms".
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WP Leader:
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Univ. OLDENBURG (Detlev Heinemann).
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Partners Involved:
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ARIA,
ARMINES, CCLRC/RAL, CENER, CIEMAT, DTU, OVERSPEED, RISOE
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Objectives:
This Work-Package aims to develop forecasting models for offshore wind farms.
In a given area of interest, offshore wind parks are currently located in the
5 to 10 km zones from coast. Considering the surface covered by wind farms,
the resolution of the wind grid needed is about 1 km. The data available for
offshore applications will be measurements at the level of wind farm as well
as Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) provided by a meteorological system.
The downscaling of NWPs to the level of wind farm involves several difficulties;
for example due to the variable roughness of sea surface that depends on wind
speed. This Work-Package focuses on the specificities of the meteorological
conditions offshore. The roughness is very low, and the thermal state of the
atmosphere, the stability, is for long periods very different from the near
neutral case expected onshore. Additionally, the low roughness increases the
influence of stability on the wind speed profile dramatically. It is of interest
to investigate the parameters that influence the wind speed offshore most. In
a first step purely NWPs are evaluated against measurements.
Of special interest is the evaluation of meteorological forecasts by estimation
of wind speed on a kilometric grid from Satellite Radar data. Radar images from
open waters contain information about wind speed and wind direction. In contrast
to mast measurements, the absolute accuracy is quite poor (rmse ~2 m/s), but
spatial information for a large region can be delivered. This spatial information
about wind speed and direction can be used e.g. to validate shadowing within
the windfarm. Patterns of wind field around the wind farm can be defined from
Satellite images. It will be examined how this high-resolution information can
be integrated in either physical or statistical prediction models.
The ultimate objective is to develop statistical (i.e. artificial intelligence
based ones) and physical models able to perform accurately for the offshore
case. The physical models should be able to describe the vertical wind profile
for vertical refinement of the wind speed. Emphasis is given in modelling spatio-temporal
characteristics in large offshore wind farms. Offshore installed capacity will
be very concentrated. Therefore large power fluctuations will occur much more
often then onshore.
Description of Work:
Task 5.1: Impact of high-resolution meteorological forecasts.
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Task 5.2: Contribution of satellite-radar information.
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Task 5.3: Development of physical & statistical
models
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Task 5.4: Modelling spatio-temporal characteristics
in large offshore wind farms
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Project
flow-chart
Back to Task
Overview
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Posted by webmaster on Saturday, October 09 @ 03:06:49 CEST (2295 reads)
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| Official documents: WP-4 description |
Work- Package 1: "DEFINITION OF PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS
Work-Package 4:
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"Prediction using advanced
Physical Modelling".
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WP Leader:
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RISOE (Gregor Giebel).
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Partners Involved:
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ARIA,
ARMINES, CENER, CIEMAT, DTU, IASA
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Objectives:
Short-term prediction is used operationally in a number of countries. The number
one complaint by the utilities that use the predictions operationally is that
the predictions are not of the same quality as they are used to from load predictions.
The short-term prediction models themselves (defined as the "translator"
of the NWP model results into wind power forecasts) are quite accurate if fed
with measured data. The models also reach a significantly better result than
pure meteorological forecasts. However, the main error source is the NWP model.
WP-4 tries to especially help out in cases of bad predictions, where the performance
of the NWP model for a particular site is not good enough.
The reasons for this less-than-adequate performance can be insufficient resolution
of the local flows, not good enough parameterisation of physical phenomena on
a scale below the grid resolution, a non-representative data source feeding
the model in the vicinity of the site, and a number of other (often large-scale)
effects. The main push in this WP is to use meso-scale and CFD models to capture
the sub-scale effects not resolved by the main NWP model. The main idea here
is that better forecasts of the worst forecasted sites leads to a higher quality
forecast for the areas, thus increasing the usability of wind power in a large-scale
grid and reducing the "ecological rucksack" of wind power.
Description of Work:
The aim of this work package is to improve existing physical
models or to elaborate more advanced ones for wind resource prediction especially
in complex terrain. The developed models will consider as input high-resolution
meteorological information. Due to the shortening of the modelled area, more
detailed models for the terrain will be developed. The Work Package will examine
the benefits from downscaling wind power using advanced CFD modelling.On the
other hand, multi-dimensional MOS correction matrix will be generated based
on a number of simulations with KAMM. This will increase the speed of a physical
model and will account for Mesoscale effects.Finally, the long-term (up to 7
days ahead) wind resource predictability will be assessed.
Task 4.1: Prediction in complex terrain. CFD modelling.
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Task 4.2: Models based on high-resolution meteorological
information.
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Task 4.3: Advanced MOS based on high-resolution meteo.
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Task 4.4: Long-term wind resource predictability (up
to 7 days).
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Project
flow-chart
Back to Task
Overview
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Posted by webmaster on Saturday, October 09 @ 01:36:50 CEST (2380 reads)
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| Official documents: Information Leaflet on the Project |
Flyer describing the background, the objectives, the structure and the expected results of the project.
Download flyer
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Posted by webmaster on Saturday, December 13 @ 00:00:55 CET (1752 reads)
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| Official documents: Publications related to the ANEMOS Project |
Untitled Document
Last update:
2007.07.18
(82 publications)
2002:
[1] |
Lange
M., et al, 'ANEMOS - Vergleich und Verbesserung existierender europäischer
Windleistungvorhersagemodelle - ANEMOS - Comparison and Improvement of Existing
European Wind Power Prediction Models', Proceedings of the 2002 DEWEK
Conference, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, October 23-24, 2002. |
2003:
[2] |
Kariniotakis
G., et al, "ANEMOS: Development of a next generation wind power forecasting
system for the large-scale integration of onshore & offshore wind farms".
Proceedings of the EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, 06-11 April 2003, Nice, France,
Vol. 5, 13588. |
[3]
|
Waldl,
H-P., Lange, B., Focken, U., "Special Issues Concerning Wind Power
Prediction for Offshore Wind Farms", Proceedings of the European Seminar:
'Offshore Wind Energy in Mediterranean and other European Seas' OWEMES,
Naples, Italy, April 12-13, 2003. (Download presentation ) |
[4]
|
Kariniotakis
G., et al, "ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting
System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC
2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[5]
|
Giebel,
G., Landberg, L., Kariniotakis, G., Brownsword, R., "State-of-the-Art
on Methods and Software Tools for Short-Term Prediction of Wind Energy Production",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC
2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[6]
|
Lange,
M., Heinemann, D., "Relating the uncertainty of short-term wind speed
predictions to meteorological situations with methods from synoptic climatology",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC
2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[7]
|
Pinson,
P., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., "Forecasting of Regional Wind
Generation by a Dynamic Fuzzy-Neural Networks Based Upscaling Approach.",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC
2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[8]
|
Barquero,
G. C., "Development of Efficient Wind Power Prediction Systems: Anemos
Project. Contribution of the IDAE", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European
Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19,
2003. |
[9]
|
Pinson,
P., Kariniotakis, G., "On-line Assessment of Prediction Risk
for Wind Power Production Forecasts", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European
Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19,
2003. |
[10]
|
Navarro,
J., et al, "Using the MM5 model for wind prediction in a complex
terrain site." CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference
& Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[11]
|
Tambke,
J., Focken, U., Lange, L., Heinemann, D., "Previento meets Horns
Rev - Short Term Wind Power Prediction- adaption to offshore sites",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC
2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003. |
[12]
|
Marti,
I., et al, "LocalPred and RegioPred. Advanced tools for wind energy
prediction in complex terrain", CD-Rom Proceedings of the European Wind
Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain, June 16-19, 2003.
|
[13]
|
Giebel,
G., Kariniotakis, G., Brownsword, R., "The State-of-the-Art in Short-Term
Prediction of Wind Power - From a Danish Perspective", CD-Rom Proceedings
of the 4th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power
and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind farms, Billund, Denmark, October
20-21, 2003. |
[14]
|
Focken,
U., Lange, L., Tambke, J., Waldl, H-P, "Predicting Offshore Windpower",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration
of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind farms, Billund,
Denmark, October 20-21, 2003.(Download presentation ) |
2004:
[15]
|
Kariniotakis,
G., & the Anemos Team, "Towards Next Generation Sort-term Forecasting
of Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference,
Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004. Paper
,
Poster
. |
[16]
|
Madsen,
H., Kariniotakis, G., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Pinson, P.,
"A Protocol for Standardising the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind
Power Prediction Models", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower
2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004.
|
[17]
|
Pinson,
P., Kariniotakis, "On-line Adaptation of Confidence Intervals based
onWeather Stability for Wind Power Forecasting", CD-Rom Proceedings
of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31,
2004. |
[18]
|
Pinson,
P., Ranchin, T., Kariniotakis, G., "Short-term Wind Power Prediction
for Offshore Wind Farms - Evaluation of Fuzzy-Neural Network Based Models",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower 2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois,
USA, March 28-31, 2004. |
[19] |
Cabezon,
D., Marti, I., San Isidro, M.J., Perez., I., "Comparison of Methods
for Power Curve Modelling", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Global WindPower
2004 Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, March 28-31, 2004. |
[20]
|
Pinson,
P., Kariniotakis, G., "Uncertainty and Prediction Risk Assessment
of Short-term Wind Power Forecasts", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Conference:
The Science of making Torque from Wind, Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21,
2004. |
[21]
|
Marti,
I., San Isidro, M.J., Cabezón, D., Loureiro, Y., Villanueva, J., Cantero,
E., Pérez, I., "Wind Power Prediction in Complex Terrain: From
the Synoptic Scale to the Local Scale", CD-Rom Proceedings of the Conference:
The Science of making Torque from Wind, Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21,
2004. |
[22]
|
Barthelmie, R., Frandsen, S., Pryor, S. and Larsen, S., "Analytical
and empirical modelling of large wind farm clusters", The science of
making torque from wind - EWEA special topic conference, Delft, April 2004,
292-303. |
[23] |
Lange,
M., Tambke, J., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., Bye, J.A.T., "Forecasting
Offshore Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the EWEA Special Topic
Conference: "The Science of making Torque from Wind", Delft, The
Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004. |
[24] |
Lange,
M., "On the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions",
CD-Rom Proceedings of the EWEA Special Topic Conference: "The Science
of making Torque from Wind", Delft, The Netherlands, April 19-21, 2004. |
[25]
|
Pinson,
P., Kariniotakis, G., "On-line Assessment of Prediction Risk for
Wind Power Production Forecasts", Wind Energy Journal, vol. 7, pp. 119-132,
May-June 2004. |
[26] |
Tambke,
J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, M., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind
Profiles over the North Sea - Measurements compared to an Air-Sea-Interaction
Model", CD-Rom Proceedings of the German Wind Energy Conference
DEWEK'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 Oct. 2004. |
[27]
|
Kariniotakis
G., Pinson, P., "Uncertainty
of Short-term Wind Power Forecasts - A Methodology for On-line Assessment",
CD-Rom proceedings of 8th International Conference on Probability Methods
Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2004, Ames, Iowa, USA, Sept. 12-16, 2004. |
[28] |
Tambke,
J., Lange, M., Focken, U., "Wind Power Forecasts for the North
and Baltic Sea", CD-rom Proceedings of the German Wind Energy Conference
DEWEK'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 Oct. 2004. |
[29] |
Kariniotakis,
G., et al, "The ANEMOS Project: Next Generation Forecasting
of Wind Power", CD-Rom Proceedings of the 2004 German Wind energy
Conference DEWEC'04, Wilhelmshaven, Germany, 20-21 October 2004. |
[30]
|
Kariniotakis,
G., Pinson, P., Siebert, N., Giebel, G., Bartelmie, R., " The
State of the Art in Short-term Prediction of Wind Power - From an Offshore
Perspective", Symposium ADEME, IFREMER, "Renewable energies
at sea", Brest, France, October 20-21, 2004. |
[31]
|
Barthelmie, R.J., Giebel, G., Jorgensen, B.H and Badger, J. "Comparison
of corrections to site wind speeds in the offshore environment: value for
short-term forecasting", CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy
Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004. |
[32]
|
Tambke,
J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, M., Focken, U., Wolff, J.-O., "Modelling
Offshore Wind Profiles using Inertially Coupled Wave Boundary Layers",
CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London,
UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004. |
[33] |
Kariniotakis,
G., I. Marti, et al, "What Performance Can Be Expected by Short-term
Wind Power Prediction Models Depending on Site Characteristics?",
CD-Rom proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London,
UK, 22-25 Nov. 2004. |
[34]
|
Pinson,
P., Chevallier, C., Kariniotakis, G., "Optimizing Benefits from
Wind Power Participation in Electricity Markets using Wind Power Forecasting
Embedded with Uncertainty Management Tools", paper accepted for
publication at the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC 2004, London, UK,
22-25 Nov. 2004. |
[35] |
Kariniotakis,
G., "Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System
for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore wind farms",
In: proceedings of the 2nd IEA Joint Action Symposium on Wind Forecasting
Techniques, Lyngby, Denmark, June 2004. |
2005:
[36] |
Tambke,
J., Lange, M., Focken, U., "Forecasting Offshore Wind Speeds
above the North Sea", Wind Energy Journal, vol. 8, pp. 3-16, Jan
-Mar. 2005. |
[37] |
Tambke, J., Bremen, L.v., Poppinga, C., Wolff, J.-O., Bye, J.A.T.,
"Forecasting Wind Power above North and Baltic Sea using Combined
and Refined Numerical Weather Predictions.", Proceedings of the
Fifth International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and
Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Glasgow, 2005. |
[38] |
Tambke,
J., Bye, J.A.T., Lange, B., Wolff, J.-O., "Wind Velocity Profiles
up to 100m above the North Sea - Observations compared to a Model of Wave-Coupled
Ekman Layers", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.7, 06884, 2005,
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-06884. |
[39] |
Tambke,
J., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bremen, L.v., Lange, B., "Wind Speed
Forecasts for the North and Baltic Sea - Verification against 10m to 100m
Observations", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.7, 10222, 2005,
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-10222. |
[40] |
Tambke,
J., Poppinga, C., Claveri, L., Bremen, L.v., Graewe, U., "Quality
of two different Wind Speed Forecasts for the North and Baltic Sea",
Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society, Abstract-No.
EMS05-A-00410, EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005. |
[41] |
Tambke,
J. T., Bye, J. A., Claveri, L., Bremen, L. v., Lange, B., Wolff, J.-O.,
"Wind Speeds and Momentum Fluxes in the Marine Boundary Layer of
the North Sea - Predictions and 1 Year Measurements up to 100m Height",
Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society,Abstract-No.
EMS05-A-00254, EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005 |
[42] |
Bremen,
L. v., Tambke, J., Poppinga, C., Graewe, U., Heinemann, D., "On
the Decision to take forecasted or analysed Wind Speeds for the Development
of statistical Wind Power Prediction Algorithms", Fifth Annual
Meeting of the European Meteorological Society, Abstract-No. EMS05-A-00402,
EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, ISSN 1812-7053, Utrecht, 2005. |
[43] |
Tambke,
J., Bye, J.A.T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Claveri, L., Bremen, L.v., Wolff,
J.-O., "Wind Speed Profiles above the North Sea", EUROMECH
Colloquium 464b Wind Energy, Oldenburg, 2005. |
[44] |
Barthelmie,
R., Giebel, G., Badger, J., "Short-term forecasting of wind
speeds in the offshore environment", CD-Rom Proceedings of Copenhagen
Offshore Wind 2005 Conference, Copenhagen Denmark, 26-28 October 2005.
|
[45] |
Tambke,
J., Poppinga, C., Bremen, L.v., Claveri, L., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bye,
J.A.T., Wolff, J.-O., "Forecasting 25GW Wind Power above North
and Baltic Sea", Proceedings of the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Conference
COW, Copenhagen, 2005 |
[46] |
Tambke,
J., Claveri, L., Bye, J.A.T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Bremen, L.v., Wolff,
J.-O., "Marine Meteorology for Multi-Mega-Watt Turbines".
Proceedings of the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Conference COW, Copenhagen,
2005 |
[47] |
Louka,
P., Galanis G., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., Katsafados, P., Kallos, G.
Pytharoulis, I., "Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind
power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering", CD-Rom Proceedings
of the CMMSE 2005, ISBN number 84-609-4844-7 |
[48] |
Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Pinson,
P., "Standardising the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind
Power Prediction Models", Wind
Engineering, vol 29, no. 6, pp. 475-489, December, 2005. |
2006:
[49] |
Sánchez,
I., "Recursive
Estimation of Dynamic Models Using Cook's Distance", With Application
to Wind Energy Forecast", Technometrics,
vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 61-73, 2006. |
[50] |
Sánchez,
I., "Short-term prediction of wind energy production",
International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 22, Issue 1, pp. 43-56, Jan.-Mar.
2006. |
[51] |
Tambke,
J., Poppinga, C., Bremen, L. v., Claveri, L., Lange, M., Focken, U., Bye,
J.A.T., Wolff J.-O., "Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid
Integration of 25GW Offshore Wind Power in Germany", (peer reviewed)
Proceedings of the Scientific Track of the European Wind Energy Conference
EWEC, Athens, 2006. |
[52] |
Tambke,
J., Claveri, L., Bye, J. A. T., Poppinga, C., Lange, B., Bremen, L.v., Durante,
F., Wolff, J.-O., "Offshore Meteorology for Multi-Mega-Watt
Turbines", (peer reviewed) Proceedings of the Scientific Track
of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC, Athens, 2006 |
[53] |
Kariniotakis,
G., et al, "Next generation forecasting tools for the optimal
management of wind generation", Peer reviewed, 2006 PMAPS Conference
IEEE, 'Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems', Stockholm, Sweden,
June 2006. |
[54] |
Pinson,
P., Juban, J., and Kariniotakis, G.N., "On the Quality and Value
of Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Generation", Peer reviewed,
2006 PMAPS Conference IEEE, 'Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems',
Stockholm, Sweden, June 2006. |
[55] |
Siebert,
N., Kariniotakis, G., "Reference wind farm selection for regional
wind power prediction models", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy
Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[56] |
Kariniotakis,
G., et al., "Next Generation Short-term Forecasting of Wind
Power - Overview of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European
Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[57] |
Nielsen,
T.S., et al, "Advanced Statistical Modelling and Uncertainty
Assessment for Wind Power Forecasting", In Proc. of the European
Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[58] |
Giebel,
G., et al "Short-term Forecasting Using Advanced Physical Modelling
- The Results of the Anemos Project. Results from mesoscale, microscale
and CFD modelling", In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference
2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[59] |
Tambke,
J., et al, "Short-term Forecasting of Offshore Wind Farms Production
- Developments of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European
Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[60] |
Marti,
I., et al, "Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models
- The Results of the Anemos Project", In Proc. of the European
Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[61] |
Waldl,
I., et al, "The ANEMOS Wind Power Forecasting Platform",
In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3
2006. |
[62] |
Pinson,
P., Nielsen, H.Aa., Nielsen, T.S., Madsen, H., Kariniotakis. G., "Properties
of interval and quantile forecasts of wind generation and their evaluation",
In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Scientific Track,
Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3 2006. |
[63] |
Usaola,
J., Angarita, J., "Benefits of short term wind power prediction
programs for the integration of wind energy in electricity markets",
In Proc. of the European Wind Energy Conference 2006, Athens, Greece, 27/2-2/3
2006. |
[64] |
von
Bremen, L., N. Saleck, J. Tambke, U. Graewe, D. Heinemann, "Integration
of NWP Uncertainties in the Development of statistical Wind Power Forecasting
Algorithms, In CD-Rom Procd. of European Wind Energy Conference EWEC'06,
Athens, 2006. |
[65] |
von
Bremen, L., N. Saleck and J. Tambke, "How to avoid Biases in
Offshore Wind Power Forecasting". In Procd. of OWEMES (Offshore
Wind And Other Marine Renewable Energies In Mediterranean And European Seas)
Conference, Civitavecchia, Italy, April 2006. |
[66] |
von
Bremen, L., "Optimal linkage of NWP Models with Neural Networks
for Offshore Wind Power Predictions", CD-rom Procd. of the Sixth
International workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission
Networks for Offshore wind Farms, Delft, Netherlands, 26-28 October 2006.
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Barthelmie,
R., Folkerts, L., Larsen, G., Pryor, S.C., Frandsen, S.T. and Schepers,
G. "Comparison of wake model simulations with offshore wind
turbine wake profiles measured by sodar", Journal of Atmospheric
and Oceanic Technology, 23(7), 888-901, 2006. |
[68] |
Sideratos,
G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "Application
of Radial Basis Function Networks for Wind Power Forecasting", In Procd.
of Artificial Neural Networks- ICANN, 16th International Conference, Athens,
Greece, Part II, September 10-14, 2006, Lecture Notes in Computer Science
4132 Springer 2006, pp. 726-735. |
[69] |
Waldl,
H-P. Kariniotakis, G. for the ANEMOS Team. "Next Generation
Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power - Results of the ANEMOS Project",
DEWEK 2006, CD-Rom Procd of 8th German Wind Energy Conference, Bremen, Germany,
22-23 November 2006. |
[70] |
Kariniotakis
G., "State of the art in wind power forecasting", 2nd
International Conference on Integration of Renewable Energies and Distributed
Energy Resources, Napa, California/USA, 4-8 December 2006. |
[71] |
Barthelmie,
R. J., Pryor, S.C., "Challenges in predicting power output from
offshore wind farms", Journal of Energy Engineering, Vol. 132, No. 3,
pp. 91-103, December 2006. |
[72] |
G.
Galanis, P. Louka, P. Katsafados, G. Kallos and I. Pytharoulis, "Applications
of Kalman filters based on non-linear functions to numerical weather predictions",
Annales Geophysicae, 24, 2451-2460, 2006. |
2007:
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Sideratos,
G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "An Advanced Statistical Method for
Wind Power Forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Volume:
22, Issue: 1, pp. 258-265, Feb. 2007. |
[74] |
Guénard,
V., Kariniotakis, G., Martí, I., "ANEMOS Advanced Wind
Power Forecasting. Operational Challenges and On-line Performance".
In CD-Rom Procd. of EWEC'07, European Wind Energy Conference 2007, Milan,
Italy, 7-10 May 2007. |
[75] |
Giebel,
G., Kariniotakis, G., "Best Practice in Short-Term Forecasting.
A Users Guide", In CD-Rom Procd. of EWEC'07, European Wind Energy
Conference 2007, Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007. |
[76] |
Pinson,
P., Chevallier, C., Kariniotakis, G.N., "Optimal Strategies for
Trading Wind Energy in Electricity Markets using Probabilistic Forecasts
of Wind Power", IEEE Transactions of Energy Conversion, Paper no. TPWRS-00709-2006,
In press, 2007. |
[77] |
Angarita,
J., Usaola, J, "Combining hydro-generation and wind energy:
Biddings and operation on electricity spot markets." Available
at http://www.sciencedirect.com. Electric Power Systems Research, Volume
77, Issues 5-6, April 2007, Pages 393-400. |
[78] |
Pinson,
P., Nielsen, H.Aa., Møller, J.K., Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G.N.
"Non-parametric Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power: Required
Properties and Evaluation", Wind Energy, in press, 2007. |
[79] |
Pinson,
P., Nielsen, H.Aa, Madsen, H., Kariniotakis, G.N., "Skill Forecasting
from Different Wind Power Ensemble Prediction Methods", Peer reviewed,
In CD-Rom Proceedings of the 2nd Conference on: 'The Science of Making Torque
from Wind', Lyngby, Denmark, 2007 (to appear). |
[80] |
Sideratos,
G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "Using Radial Basis Neural Networks
to Estimate Wind Power Production", IEEE Power Engineering Society,
2007 General Meeting, Orlando, Florida, January 8-10, 2007. |
[81] |
Louka,
P., Galanis, G., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., Katsafados, P., Kallos,
G., Pytharoulis, I., "Improvements in wind speed forecasts
for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering", submitted
for publication in Journal of Wind Engineering & Industrial Aerodynamics. |
[82] |
Sideratos,
G., Hatziargyriou, N.D., "An
advanced radial base structure for wind power forecasting", to
appear in the International Journal of Power and Energy Systems. |
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Posted by webmaster on Thursday, October 02 @ 23:49:57 CEST (8428 reads)
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| Official documents: WP-3 description |
Work-Package 3:
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"Development of Statistical
Models ".
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WP Leader:
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DTU-IMM (Henrik Madsen).
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Partners Involved:
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ARMINES,
CCLRC/RAL, CENER, IASA, ICCS/NTUA, UC3M, University of Oldenburg.
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Objectives:
The objective of this Work Package is to develop accurate models for wind resource
forecasting based on advanced statistical and mainly on artificial intelligence
methods (i.e. fuzzy logic, neural networks). These techniques permit to combine
various types of explanatory inputs like wind direction, wind speed from neighbour
sites, numerical weather predictions etc. Statistical techniques are very promising
when high-resolution meteorological information is used as input to predict
wind production up to 48-72 hours ahead.
Emphasis will be given to the development of statistical power curve models
to estimate the relationship between wind power and local forecasts for meteorological
variables such as wind speed and direction. Experience so far shows that one
of the main error sources in wind power prediction lies in insufficient power
curves. The use of certified power curves does not guarantee that the relation
between wind speed and power output is accurately described. Models based on
artificial intelligence will be developed for statistical downscaling. This
consists in using a non-physical model for interpolating metrological forecasts
from the nodes around wind farm to the level of wind farm and height of wind
turbines. Statistical modelling can be an alternative technique to explicit
terrain and roughness modelling.
Tasks will be dedicated on the development of approaches for regional or national
forecasting of wind power (upscaling). Robust approaches for the on-line tuning
of prediction models will be developped and evaluated. Such methods will permit
adaptive models to avoid producing outliers in case of erroneous data input
or extreme wind conditions.
Description of Work:
Task 3.1: Development of advanced statistical prediction
models.
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Task 3.2: Power curve modelling.
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Task 3.3: Statistical downscaling.
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Task 3.4: Upscaling.
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Task 3.5: Automated processes for online tuning.
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Task 3.6: Very short-term prediction for control purposes.
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Project flow-chart
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Overview
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Posted by webmaster on Tuesday, September 23 @ 21:12:17 CEST (2757 reads)
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| Official documents: WP-2 description |
Work-Package 2:
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"Off-line Evaluation of Prediction
Techniques".
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WP Leader:
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CENER (Ignacio Marti).
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Partners Involved:
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ARMINES, ARIA, UC3M, DTU,
MeteoFrance, CCLRC/RAL, RISOE, IASA, Univ-Oldenburg, CIEMAT.
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Objectives:
The aim of this work package is double fold. Initially, existing models developed by the partners called hereafter as “base-line” models will be set-up for a set of case-studies defined in WP-1. Then, using sets of data, prediction results will be produced covering sufficiently long periods. The development of ANEMOS shell and database in WP-6 will provide the possibility to host the data and interface with base-line models so that these prediction results can be easily compared to models developed in the project, but also, in order to examine the performance of combined models. In a second stage, the off-line evaluation of the models developed in the project will follow. The results from base-line models will permit benchmarking and extensive evaluation of the benefits from the developments in the project. Appropriate case-studies will be defined in WP-1 to cover a wide variety of environments, flat and complex terrain, on and offshore wind farms; also different forecasting horizons, from minutes to days; and different spatial scales, from the wind farm to the region.
This work package will undertake the challenging task to compare output of meteorological models for a number of selected sites. The conclusions are expected to be very critical for selecting the appropriate NWP systems for wind forecasting applications using cost/benefit analysis.
Finally, appropriate criteria will be defined for the evaluation of the methods with emphasis to their performance in extreme weather conditions, as well as their robustness in on-line operation conditions. The evaluation of the performance of the applied techniques will be done in off-line mode, using the historical database created in WP1. The validation of the models in on-line operation will continue in WP6 after the installation of ANEMOS at the selected sites.
The results of this work package will be crucial for the development of the project. The error estimation methodology will be used throughout the life of the project in order to assess the performance of the different models. The test cases will provide results, which will be the guidelines to develop the prediction models.
Description of Work:
Task 2.1: Off-line evaluation of base-line models.
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Task 2.2: Combination of the existing models.
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Task 2.3: Evaluation of models developed in the project.
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Task 2.4: Evaluation of purely meteorological forecasts.
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Task 2.5: Development of appropriate error measures.
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Project flow-chart
Back to Tasks
Overview
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Posted by webmaster on Monday, September 22 @ 22:34:17 CEST (2518 reads)
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